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Capitulo Cinco Essay

1878 words - 8 pages

CAPÍTULO V: ¿QUIÉN PERDIÓ A RUSIA?
Dos fueron las grandes transiciones económicas de todos los tiempos:
* La primera cuando Rusia aplicó el comunismo
* La segunda tras la caída del Muro de Berlín
Rusia experimentó un gran crecimiento, después de 1998, basado en la suba del precio del petróleo y de los beneficios de la devaluación (a la que tanto se opuso el FMI). Pero como dichos precios han caído y las ventajas de la devaluación ya han sido cosechadas, el crecimiento se ha desacelerado.
Pero para llevar a cabo una exitosa transición de la economía de estado a la economía de mercado, es necesario comprender que la Revolución de 1917 apuntó también a un cambio social y político. De ...view middle of the document...

Pero dejaban de considerar la relevancia de las instituciones: aquellos entes legales y reguladores que ordenan los mercados.
En el caso ruso, gradualmente se fue accediendo a una economía de mercado, pero no sin antes haber fundado los entes reguladores que mencionáramos en el párrafo ut supra.
De cualquier manera, Rusia accedió a una economía de mercado; sin embargo, el nivel de vida cayó estrepitosamente.

* La historia de la <<reforma>>
Los primeros cambios comenzaron a vislumbrase alrededor de 1992. El grueso de los precios fue liberalizado aunque se siguieron controlando aquellos concernientes a los recursos naturales.
La liberalización, la estabilización y la privatización a toda prisa fueron las políticas pilares del FMI. Pero en el caso ruso, estas tres políticas se tradujeron en una caída del 60% en la producción entre 1990 y 1999. Los inversores, lógicamente, no se iban a arriesgar a invertir en un país poco prometedor, y a esto se le sumó la fuga de capitales.

* La crisis de 1998
Las importaciones inundaron a Rusia y los productores locales a duras penas podían competir. La inversión se había interrumpido y Rusia ya no estaba produciendo bienes de consumo. A todo esto se le sumaba el paro "disfrazado": los trabajadores simulaban trabajar, y los empresarios simulaban pagar. Los salarios se derrumbaron, y en forma de pago muchos trabajadores recibían bienes de primera necesidad en vez de rublos.
Se provocó la sobrevaluación del rublo, lo que benefició a los empresarios: necesitaban menos rublos para comprar sus Mercedes o carteras Channel.
Fue así como el FMI recomendó al Estado Ruso endeudarse en dólares, ya que el rublo era más alto al cambio que la divisa norteamericana. El Fondo suponía que el Estado ahorraría mucho y esto paliaría en cierta manera la crisis. Lo que los burócratas del Fondo no consideraron es que una moneda no está sujeta a un exclusivo tipo de cambio, y era factible que el rublo llegase a desplomarse. Llegado este momento, Rusia sería presa de la debacle.
Como es de esperar, el FMI eligió no contemplar ese riesgo.

* Rescate
La crisis había estallado, y el paquete de ayuda, conformado de unos 22.600 millones de U$S, estaba a cargo del FMI (11.200 millones), el BM (6.000 millones) y el resto a cargo del gobierno de Japón.
Sin embargo, ¿Por qué a Rusia se le otorgaban 22.600 millones de U$S a pesar de ser un Estado sumamente corrupto, y a Kenya le suspendían la ayuda por sus altos índices de corrupción?
Tiempo después, el Estado Ruso recibió 300 millones más para mantener el tipo de cambio del rublo con respecto al dólar, lo que constituyó una pésima política económica. Si el rublo sobrevaluado dañaba la economía ¿para qué mantenerlo? Muchos creyeron que un gran fracaso se aproximaba, y no se confundieron.

* Fracaso
Luego del préstamo, el 17 de agosto de 1998, Rusia anunció la suspensión de pagos unilateral, la devaluación del rublo y un mayor control al movimiento de...

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