Pushteti Ekonomi Essay

4255 words - 18 pages

Zhvendosja e Pushtetit Ekonomik Botëror nga Perëndimi në Lindje

-Pleurat REXHEPI-

Hyrje:

Zhvendosja e pushtetit ekonomik nga Perëndimi në Lindje
Ndryshimet e ekonomisë globale pas krizës financiare kanë ndikuar në zhvendosjen e pushtetit ekonomik, politik dhe ushtarak, nga vendet perëndimore të quajtura “TRIAD” (Shtetet e Bashkuara, Bashkimi Evropian dhe Japonia), drejt ekonomive të reja lindore të quajtura “BRIK” (Brazil, Rusi, Indi dhe Kinë). Është e vështirë të thuhet nëse kjo zhvendosje pushteti mund të vlerësohet si diçka pozitive apo negative, pasi është ende herët për të dhënë një gjykim të plotë. Por ajo që vihet re, është se, rritja ekonomike e vendeve në zhvillim (BRIK), ...view middle of the document...

Pra, për të pasur një ide më të qartë se kush do të jetë lideri i ri botëror ekonomiko – politiko - ushtarak dhe kulturor në vitet 2050 - 2090, duhen analizuar një sërë pyetjesh: § deri në çfarë shkalle do të vazhdojnë tensionet ndërkombëtare për zotërimin e burimeve natyrore? § deri në çfarë shkalle do të armatosen vendet e BRIK-ut për të rikthyer prestigjin e tyre politiko-ekonomik rajonal? § deri në çfarë shkalle do ta përdorin ushtrinë e tyre për ndërhyrje ndërkombëtare për të ruajtur pozitat e tyre ekonomike? § § deri në çfarë shkalle do të mbizotërojë ekspansioni kulturor? deri në çfarë shkalle do të përdoren inovacionet e reja teknologjike me energji të rinovueshme? Pra, siç shihet, të gjitha këto pyetje janë përcaktuese për të bëre një parashikim më të saktë mbi të ardhmen e ekonomisë botërore në 50 vitet e ardhshme. Megjithatë, për të pasur një ide më të mirë se çfarë pasojash do të sjellë zhvendosja e pushtetit global, së pari, duhet analizuar rritja e ekonomive lindore (BRIK) dhe pasojat e saj në vendet perëndimore (TRIAD-it). Sipas shifrave të fundit të Goldman Sachs (2010), PBB-ja totale për grupin e G7 (TRIAD+Kanada) ishte $27 trilion në vitin 2000, dhe parashikohet që të jetë vetëm $37 trilion në vitin 2020. Ndërsa vendet BRIK parashikohet që të pësojnë një rritje marramendëse nga $4 trilion në vitin 2000 në $27 trilion në vitin 2020 (shih tabelën 1). Tabela 1: Rritja ekonomike e vendeve BRIK dhe të G7 në trilion dollarë Vitet 2000 2010 2020
Burimi: (Goldman Sachs, 2010)

G7 (TRIAD + Kanada) 27 33 37

BRIK 4 11 27

Tregje të tjera të zhvilluara 6 8 9


 

2

Me rritjen e shpejtë të vendeve BRIK dhe me rritjen e aftësive konkurruese në tregtinë ndërkombëtare, shumë supershtete të mesme, si Britania e Madhe, Franca, Italia, Spanja, mund të përballen me kohë të vështira duke humbur nga konkurrenca e aktorëve të rinj. Ndërsa, për superfuqitë botërore si SHBA apo Kina, parashikohet që të ketë një ndryshim të theksuar në lidershipin ekonomik në vitin 2050. Nëse analizohet me kujdes pariteti i fuqisë blerëse dhe BPP-së së projektuar, shohim se Kina do të ketë një rritje të theksuar nga 11 347 $ miliardë në vitin 2011 në 53 856 $ miliardë në vitin 2050. Në të njëjtën kohë, SHBA-ja do të ketë një rritje modeste nga 15 094$ miliardë në vitin 2011, në 37 998$ në vitin 2050, (shih tabelën 2). Viti
2011 2030
PBB e projektuar në termat e PPP në 2011 mld($)

2050
PBB e projektuar në termat e PPP (2011 mld.($))

PPP (pariteti i fuqisë blerëse 2011)

Shteti: Faza 1

PBB ne PPP (US mld.($)

Shteti: Faza 2

Shteti: Faza 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

US Kinë Indi Japoni Gjermani Rusi Brazil Francë Angli Itali

15094 11347 4531 4381 3221 3031 2305 2303 2287 1979

Kinë US Indi Japoni Rusi Brazil Gjermani Meksikë Angli Francë

30634 23376 13716 5842 5308 4685 4118 3662 3499 3427

Kinë US Indi Brazil Japoni Rusi Meksikë Indonezi Gjermani Francë

53856 37998 34704 8825 8065 8013 7409 6346 5822 5714

Burimi:...

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