Real Estate Essay

6149 words - 25 pages

Relationship between Real Estate and Financial Sectors in Dubai Economy

Dr. Eisa Abdelgalil

Data Management and Research Department

Table of Contents

Table of Contents............................................................................................................i ‫......................................................................................................................ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬي‬ii Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background ...view middle of the document...

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i

‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬي‬

‫اﻟﻬ ﺪف اﻟﺮﺋﻴ ﺴﻲ ﻣ ﻦ ه ﺬﻩ اﻟﺪراﺳ ﺔ ه ﻮ اﻟﺘﺤﻘ ﻖ ﻣ ﻦ وﺟ ﻮد ﻋﻼﻗ ﺔ ﺑ ﻴﻦ ﻗﻄ ﺎع اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات‬ ‫واﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﺑﻲ وﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺠﺰﺋﻲ ﻟ ﺴﻮق‬ ‫دﺑ ﻲ اﻟﻤ ﺎﻟﻲ. وﻗ ﺪ اﺗ ﻀﺢ إﺣ ﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎ أن ﻣﺜ ﻞ ه ﺬﻩ اﻟﻌﻼﻗ ﺔ ﻣﻮﺟ ﻮدة ﻓ ﻲ دﺑ ﻲ، ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﻣ ﺴﺘﻮى‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ واﻟﺠﺰﺋﻲ.‬ ‫إن ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات هﻮ اﻟﻤﺤﺮك اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ. ﻣﻊ اﻷهﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮة ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﻤ ﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨ ﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻘﻄ ﺎع اﻟﺨ ﺪﻣﺎت آﻜ ﻞ ﻓ ﻲ دﺑ ﻲ، ﻓﻘ ﺪ أﻇﻬ ﺮ ﻗﻄ ﺎع اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات ﺑﺄﻧ ﻪ أآﺜ ﺮ رﻳ ﺎدة ﻓ ﻲ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد دﺑﻲ. وﺑﻤﺎ أن هﺬﻳﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﻦ اﻟﺤﻴﻮﻳﻴﻦ ﻳﺤﺮآﺎن اﻗﺘﺼﺎد دﺑﻲ ﺑﻜﺎﻣﻠﻪ، ﻣ ﻦ اﻟﻤﻬ ﻢ أن‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻋﻦ آﺜﺐ ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات ﻓﻲ هﺬﻳﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﻦ.‬ ‫إن اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻤﻤﻴﺰة ﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات ﺗﺘ ﺴﺒﺐ ﻓ ﻲ اﺧ ﺘﻼف أﺳ ﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات ﻋ ﻦ أﺳ ﻌﺎر‬ ‫اﻷﻧﻮاع اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﻦ اﻷﺻﻮل، ﻣﺜﻞ اﻷﺳ ﻬﻢ. ﻗ ﺪ ﻳﺤ ﺪث اﻟﺘﺬﺑ ﺬب ﻓ ﻲ أﺳ ﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات ﻟﻜ ﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ، ﻟﻜﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺳﻮق اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات. ﻟﺬﻟﻚ، ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ أﻣﺮا‬ ‫ﻋﺎدﻳﺎ أن ﺗﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ.‬ ‫ﻗ ﺪ ﻳﺤ ﺪث أن ﻳﺰﻳ ﺪ ﻋ ﺮض اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات ﻧﺘﻴﺠ ﺔ ﻟ ﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴ ﺔ ﻏﻴ ﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺳ ﺒﺔ ﺗ ﺸﻮﻩ ﻣ ﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻮاﻓﺰ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ. ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل، ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆدي اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﻜ ﻮم ﺑ ﻀﻮاﺑﻂ إﻟ ﻰ‬ ‫ﻇﻬﻮر ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪة ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻹﻗﺮاض اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة وذﻟﻚ ﻣ ﻦ ﺧ ﻼل ﺗ ﻮﻓﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﺮوض ﺑ ﺸﺮوط ﺳ ﺨﻴﺔ. وﻣ ﻊ اﺷ ﺘﺪاد اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓ ﺴﺔ وﺗ ﻮﻓﺮ اﻟﻤﺰﻳ ﺪ ﻣ ﻦ اﻟﻤ ﻮارد اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳ ﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤ ﺸﺎرﻳﻊ اﻟﻌﻘﺎرﻳ ﺔ، ﻳﺮﺗﻔ ﻊ اﻻﺳ ﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓ ﻲ اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات وﻓ ﻲ اﻟﻤﺤ ﺼﻠﺔ ﺳ ﻮف ﺗﻬ ﺒﻂ أﺳ ﻌﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات ﺑﻌﺪ ارﺗﻔﺎﻋﻬﺎ اﻷوﻟﻲ ﻓﻮق ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪدهﺎ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ.‬ ‫إن ﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات أﻣﺮا هﺎﻣﺎ ﻷﺟﻞ اﺳ ﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻨﻈ ﺎم اﻟﻤ ﺼﺮﻓﻲ. وﻳﻌ ﻮد ﺳ ﺒﺐ ذﻟ ﻚ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ وﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤ ﺼﺎرف. ﻳﺠ ﺐ اﺳ ﺘﺨﺪام‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات واﻟﻘ ﺮوض اﻟﺘ ﻲ ﺗﻘ ﺪﻣﻬﺎ اﻟﺒﻨ ﻮك ﻟﻠﻌﻘ ﺎرات اﻟ ﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳ ﺔ آﻤﺆﺷ ﺮات‬ ‫ﻟ ﺼﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈ ﺎم اﻟﻤ ﺼﺮﻓﻲ. إن ﻣﺆﺷ ﺮات أﺳ ﻮاق اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات اﻟﺘ ﻲ ﻳﺠ ﺐ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﺻ ﺎﻧﻌﻲ‬ ‫اﻟ ﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺒﺤ ﺚ ﻓﻴﻬ ﺎ ه ﻲ )أ( أﺳ ﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﻘ ﺎرات )ب( ﻧ ﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻘ ﺮوض اﻟﺘ ﻲ ﺗﻘ ﺪﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺎرف إﻟﻰ اﻟﻌﻘﺎرات اﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ إﺟﻤ ﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻘ ﺮوض اﻟﺘ ﻲ ﺗﻘ ﺪﻣﻬﺎ ه ﺬﻩ اﻟﻤ ﺼﺎرف )ت(‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻗﺮوض اﻟﻤﺼﺎرف اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻘﺎرات اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻗﺮوﺿﻬﺎ.‬

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Executive Summary
The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship between real estate sector and financial sector at the macroeconomic level of Dubai economy and at the microeconomic level of Dubai Financial Market. Empirical evidence has shown that such a relationship does exist in Dubai, at both the macro and microeconomic levels. The real estate sector has been the prime driver of the financial sector. As the financial sector is crucial for the whole services sector of Dubai, the real estate sector shows to be even more leading sector. And since the whole economy of Dubai is being driven by those two vital sectors it is imperative to keep watching closely the course of developments in both sectors. The distinctive characteristics of real estate market cause real estate prices to behave differently from the prices of other types of assets, such as shares. The fluctuations in real estate...

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